Sunday, September 26, 2021

A Brief List of Problems with the JBP Estimate for Small Products Assembler I

 Vocational experts frequently  identify small products assembler I (DOT 706.684-022) (aka small parts assembler or bench assembler) as a responsive occupation to a light residual functional capacity with or without a sit-stand option.  We address Job Browser Pro's (JBP) estimate in version 7.3.1 that this occupation represents 19,707 full-time jobs.  

1.  Inappropriate Industries

The food manufacturing subsector (NAICS 311000) is not involved in the basic functions of a small products assembler I.  The DOT defines small products assembler I:

 Performs any combination of following repetitive tasks on assembly line to mass produce small products, such as ball bearings, automobile door locking units, speedometers, condensers, distributors, ignition coils, drafting table subassemblies, or carburetors: Positions parts in specified relationship to each other, using hands, tweezers, or tongs. Bolts, screws, clips, cements, or otherwise fastens parts together by hand or using handtools or portable powered tools. Frequently works at bench as member of assembly group assembling one or two specific parts and passing unit to another worker. Loads and unloads previously setup machines, such as arbor presses, drill presses, taps, spot-welding machines, riveting machines, milling machines, or broaches, to perform fastening, force fitting, or light metal-cutting operation on assembly line. May be assigned to different work stations as production needs require or shift from one station to another to reduce fatigue factor. May be known according to product assembled.

None of the typical work functions have anything to do with food.  Small products assembler I works on an assembly line to mass produce small products.  The food subsector includes the JBP identified NAICS groups (four non-zero digits) for animal, sugar and confectionary, fruit and vegetable, dairy, animal slaughtering, seafood, and bakeries.  This industry groups does not involve assembly line work to mass product small products.  The identification of those industry groups has an apparent conflict with the DOT that requires a reasonable explanation.  This conflict raises serious questions about 896 jobs.   

The beverage and tobacco (NAICS 312000), textile (NAICS 314000), and leather (NAICS 316000) subsectors have the same apparent conflict.  Those industries do not carry descriptions related  to the assembly of small products on an assembly line.  These industry designations raise DOT conflict with 177 jobs.   

Printing and related support activities involve the printing of newspapers, books, labels, business cards, stationery, business forms, and other materials.  Workers perform activities involving data imaging, platemaking services, and bookbinding.  NAICS 323000.  These industries do to involve the mass production of small products.  This raises another conflict as to 31 jobs.  

The chemical manufacturing subsector in based on the transformation of organic and inorganic raw materials by a chemical process and formulation of products.  NAICS 325000.  JBP designates OEWS industry clusters NAICS 3250A1 and 3250A2.  JBP separately identifies NAICS 325400.   Those designations cover all 7 industry groups.  This raises a conflict as to 130 jobs JBP.    

The wood product manufacturing subsector (NAICS 321000) could have some assembly line work until we examine the specific industries within the subsector.  We should not get to exorcised over this as JBP identifies 69 jobs in three industry groups.  In some circuits, it might be necessary to raise questions about these small products assembled in the industry subsectors, group, and industries designated.  

Plastics and rubber product manufacturing do involve the manufacture of products.  NAICS 326000.  Most do not involve assembly characteristic of a small products assembler I.  Using molding or casting to create products does not involve assembly.  NAICS 326100.  Vulcanizing, cementing, molding, extruding, and lathe-cutting do not involve assembly characteristic of small products assembler I.  This represents another DOT-based conflict with 83 jobs.  

Primary metal manufacturing does not involve job duties performed by a small products assembler I.  NAICS 331000.  Primary metal manufacturing smelt or refine metals form ore, pig, or scrap.  Stamping and casting processes are excluded from NAICS 331000.  This observation from the NAICS Manual uncovers another DOT-based conflict with 97 jobs.    

Fabricated metal product manufacturing subsector requires careful examination of industry groups.  NIACS 332000.  JPB identifies the industry group cluster of NAICS 3320A1 and 3320A2 and separately identifies industry NAICS 332710 and industry group NAICS 332800.  The only industry within the subsector not on the list is turned product and screw, nut, and bolt manufacturing.  NAICS 332720.  Forging and stamping do not involve the assembly of small products.  NAICS 332100.  The manufacturing of metal kitchen cookware, utensils, cutlery, flatware, and saw blades do not invoke assembly line work.  Manufacture of nonpowered handtools and edge tools do not have an apparent conflict on inspection.  NAICS 332200.  Manufacture of prefabricated metal buildings, panels, and sections; structural metal products; metal plate work; metal framed windows and doors; metal sheet work; and ornamental and architectural metal products have an apparent conflict with assembly line work involving small products.  NAICS 332300.  The manufacture of power boilers and heat exchangers; tanks, vessels, and other containers; or forming light gauge metal containers has a conflict with production of small products on an assembly line.  NAICS 332400.  Hardware manufacturing of hinges, keys, and locks do not have an apparent conflict with small products assembler I.  NAICS 332500.  Cutting, bending, and heat winding or the manufacture of wire springs are assembly line processes involving the mass production of small parts and thus another DOT-based conflict.  NAICS 332600.  Machine shops involved in low volume work using lathes, screw machines, and other machines for boring, grinding, milling, and additive manufacturing are not assembly line types of work functions.  NAICS 332710.  Coating, engraving, and heat treating of metals conflict with the core duties of a small products assembler I on an assembly line.  NAICS 332800.  Valves, hose fittings, fixture fittings, trim manufacturing, and pipe fittings do not have a gross conflict with assembly line work involving small products.  NAICS 332900.  For this industry subsector, JBP is grossly overbroad.  Most of the industry groups simply do not fit.  This a long analysis to raise DOT-based conflict with 252 jobs.  

The industry sector designation 44-45 describes retail trade.  Retailers might have people that put pieces together for customers.  But the proposition that retailers have an assembly line for the production of small parts much less the examples of component parts described in the DOT produces another conflict uncovered by exploration of the NAICS Manual.  This observation form the NAICS Manual uncovers another DOT-based conflict with 902 jobs.    

 JBP states that small products assembler I represents 351 jobs in warehousing and storage.  NAICS 493000.  The warehousing and storage subsector primarily engages in operation of warehouse and storage facilities and logistical services related to distribution.  Warehousing and storage businesses would not logically have assembly line production using the services of a small products assembler I.  This observation from the NAICS manual reveals another DOT-based conflict with 351 jobs.  

JBP states that small products assembler I constitutes 934 jobs in the miscellaneous manufacturing industry subsector.  NAICS 339000.  A click on the "CBP" hyperlink and selecting staffing patterns confirms that the industry groups within the subsector includes not 6 DOT codes suggested by JBP but actually 136 DOT codes.  The denominator stated by SkillTran reduces the occupation-industry intersection of 5,606 jobs to 41 jobs, not 934 jobs.  

JBP lists over half the jobs in temporary help services.  NAICS 561320.  Vocational experts will state that this represents temp to regular hire process.  The NAICS disagrees.  

This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in supplying workers to clients' businesses for limited periods of time to supplement the working force of the client. The individuals provided are employees of the temporary help services establishment. 

The interpretive ruling defines substantial gainful activity as including a concept of sustained work activity.  SSR 96-8p.  It is clear that part-time and seasonal work can constitute substantial gainful activity for past relevant work activity purposes.  SSR 83-35.  Whether seasonal or temporary work constitutes a regular and continuing basis is an open question.  SSR 96-8p.  

2. Inconsistent use of Subsectors and Industry Groups

The first big group of jobs comes in the paper manufacturing subsector (NAICS 322000).  JBP states that the subsector employs 4,564 production workers, all other in 2 DOT codes, small products assembler I and marker II.  A check of the "Show All DOTs in this OWES Group" box on the prior screen lists 1,528 DOT codes.  The DOT lists 14 codes as working in paper and pulp industry and 61 codes in the paper goods industry.  A check of those occupations within the program reveals that JPB lists those 75 occupations and another 26 codes from other industries in two industry groups: pulp, paper, and paperboard mills (NAICS 322100) and converted paper product manufacturing (NAICS 322200).  Those two industry groups comprise the entirety of the industry subsector of paper manufacturing.  

JBP attributed 4,564 jobs to small products assembler I and marker II.  JBP attributed those those same 4,564 jobs to 65 DOT codes in pulp, paper, and paperboard manufacturing and an overlapping 84 DOT codes in converted paper product manufacturing.  Because JBP uses equal distribution at the occupation-industry intersection, JBP estimates that each of those 101 codes represents 59 jobs in the two industry groups combined.  Moving small products assembler I and marker II to the industry  groups instead of the subsector increases the denominator by two in each calculation reduces the number of jobs attributable to small products assembler I to 58.  That is a far cry from the 2,282 reported by JBP.  

A click on the "CBP" hyperlink and selecting staffing patterns confirms the error in failing to use three and four digit NAICS codes designations.  SkillTran lists 101 DOT codes classified as part of production workers, all other as working in the paper manufacturing subsector.  

JBP states that small products assembler I constitutes 206 jobs in the furniture and related product manufacturing industry subsector.  NAICS 337000.  A click on the "CBP" hyperlink and selecting staffing patterns confirms that the industry groups within the subsector includes not 7 DOT codes suggested by JBP but actually 135 DOT codes.  The denominator stated by SkillTran reduces the occupation-industry intersection of 1,440 jobs to 11 jobs, not 206 jobs.  

The big employer of small products assembler I workers is temporary help services.  NAICS 561320.  JBP places 5 DOT codes in the occupation-industry intersection comprising 56,285 jobs.  Using the equal distribution method at the intersection, JBP states that small products assembler I comprises 11,384 jobs.  A click on the "CBP" hyperlink and selecting staffing patterns restates the presence of 5 production workers, all other DOT codes in NAICS 561320.  We have seen a pattern of error where JBP uses three-digit industry subsectors instead of four-digit industry groups.  Here, JBP uses a five-digit industry designation.  This calls for climbing up rather than drilling down.  Checking for national staffing patterns for industry group 561300 recites the same 5 DOT codes.  Checking the national staffing patterns for industry subsector 561000 lists 35 DOT codes.  A check of the OEWS for SOC 51-9199 and NAICS 560000 describes the intersection at 74,880 jobs.  Administrative support services (NAICS 561000) represents 72,600 jobs.  Employment services (NAICS 561300) represents 70,960 jobs.  Temporary help services (NAICS 561320) represents 67,360 jobs.  JBP lists 3 occupations in other support services (NAICS 561900) where the OEWS estimates 980 jobs.  SkillTran does not list any production worker occupations for other support services or business support services.  Discarding the 3 DOT codes designated for other support services, the question is where do the other 27 DOT codes belong?  Over 80% of the jobs in the subsector belong to the  temporary help services.  JBP and SkillTran have made inconsistent statements about which DOT codes belong in the sector, subsector, group, and industry.  It is incumbent on the proponent of the data to come forward with a logical and rational explanation of why reliance on JBP for these 11,384 jobs is reliable as opposed to a job number of 1,608.    

3.  Inconsistent Statements about Job Numbers

JBP list 866 production worker jobs in the petroleum and coal products manufacturing industry subsector (NAICS 324000).  Clicking on the "CBP" hyperlink and selecting staffing patterns reveals that SkillTran does not list production workers, all other as existing in the industry.  Checking the OccuCollect OEWS report for production workers in the manufacturing sector confirms that the petroleum manufacturing subsector employs 1,270 production workers.  The JBP estimate of 866 production workers and 51 small products assembler is reasonable.  But that conclusion is true if small products assembler I is involved in the transformation of crude petroleum and coal into usable small products.  

4.  Equal Distribution

JBP uses equal distribution at the occupation-industry intersection.  The Occupational Requirements Survey sets forth Labor's review of production workers.  In the 2020 data set. Labor states that 68% of production worker jobs require medium exertion.  Less than a third of DOT codes within production workers require medium exertion. Equal distribution overcounts sedentary and light job numbers and undercounts medium job numbers.  

Labor reports that 28% of production worker jobs require SVP 2.  Labor identifies 685 unskilled DOT codes out of a total of 1,590 DOT codes as production workers.  Equal distribution overcounts unskilled jobs numbers and undercounts semi-skilled and skilled job numbers.  

The simple observation that JBP uses equal distribution at the occupation-industry intersection makes the estimates of job numbers unreliable.  The estimate of jobs at the intersection is valuable information.  The identification of DOT codes at the intersection (sector, subsector, group, and individual industry) provides additional understanding of the work.  There are approximately 58,433 unskilled production worker jobs in the national economy.  There are 63,320 production jobs that do not require medium exertion.  Assuming that exertion and skill level are truly independent variables (that skill level and exertion do not correlate), the number of unskilled production jobs that do not require medium exertion totals 18,173.  That number of jobs is spread out in 405 light unskilled DOT codes and 52 sedentary unskilled DOT codes along with 43 heavy and very heavy occupations.  Many of light unskilled DOT codes requires frequent stooping, constant manipulation, exposure to loud or greater noise, exposure to pulmonary irritants, or exposure to workplace hazards.  

If skill levels and exertion do correlate and sedentary and light work are more likely to require skills than medium, heavy, and very heavy work, then the number of light and sedentary unskilled jobs as a proportion of that 18,173 aggregate drops.  There are not 19,707 full-time small products assembler I in the national economy.  Not unless the Department of Labor through the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not know how to count and classify jobs.  Creating conflict in the record before the ALJ forces the agency to state a logical and rational basis for rejecting the proffer and request for administrative notice. 


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Suggested Citation:

Lawrence Rohlfing, A Brief List of Problems with the JBP Estimate for Small Products Assembler, California Social Security Attorney (September 26, 2021)  https://californiasocialsecurityattorney.blogspot.com

Sunday, September 12, 2021

Industry Employment for Production Workers, All Other -- OEWS

 The DOT designates an industry or industries in the parenthetical description of the occupation.  The industry designation is an integral part of each DOT description.  Failure to account for the identification of work becomes apparent only if the representative raises the issue during the hearing or in the post-hearing submission.  Here is the industry employment for production workers, all other for 52 sedentary codes, 405 light, and 185 medium unskilled occupations.  

Two non-zero digits represents an industry sector.  Three non-zero digits represents an industry subsector.  Four non-zero digits represents an industry group.  Five non-zero digits represents a specific industry.  Six non-zero digits represents a more specific industry designation used in the United States but not on Canada or Mexico (North American Industry Classification System is used in North America).  Understanding the NAICS system used in County Business Patterns, the OEWS, and the Employment Projections is critical to avoiding overcounting or double counting jobs within an occupation.  If a publication is not fastidious in its use of industry  codes to an occupation, that publication is probably overcounting jobs.  

OCCUCOLLECT

Reporting publicly available BLS data

Dataset 2020

Occupational Employment & Wage Statistics

51-9199 - Production Workers, All Other
31-33 - Manufacturing

NAICS

INDUSTRY

Job #s

31-33

Manufacturing

79,480

311000

Food Manufacturing

9,740

311100

Animal Food Manufacturing

290

311200

Grain and Oilseed Milling

1,400

311300

Sugar and Confectionery Product Manufacturing

640

311400

Fruit and Vegetable Preserving and Specialty Food Manufacturing

1,140

311500

Dairy Product Manufacturing

630

311600

Animal Slaughtering and Processing

1,880

311700

Seafood Product Preparation and Packaging

120

311800

Bakeries and Tortilla Manufacturing

1,020

311900

Other Food Manufacturing

2,620

312000

Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing

1,300

312100

Beverage Manufacturing

980

312200

Tobacco Manufacturing

320

313000

Textile Mills

360

313100

Fiber, Yarn, and Thread Mills

90

313200

Fabric Mills

180

313300

Textile and Fabric Finishing and Fabric Coating Mills

80

314000

Textile Product Mills

570

314100

Textile Furnishings Mills

**

314900

Other Textile Product Mills

**

315000

Apparel Manufacturing

560

315200

Cut and Sew Apparel Manufacturing

420

315900

Apparel Accessories and Other Apparel Manufacturing

140

316000

Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing

230

316100

Leather and Hide Tanning and Finishing

110

316900

Other Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing

**

321000

Wood Product Manufacturing

3,360

321100

Sawmills and Wood Preservation

620

321200

Veneer, Plywood, and Engineered Wood Product Manufacturing

770

321900

Other Wood Product Manufacturing

1,970

322000

Paper Manufacturing

5,840

322100

Pulp, Paper, and Paperboard Mills

1,570

322200

Converted Paper Product Manufacturing

4,270

323000

Printing and Related Support Activities

1,490

323100

Printing and Related Support Activities

1,490

324000

Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing

1,270

324100

Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing

1,270

325000

Chemical Manufacturing

7,820

3250A1

Chemical Manufacturing (3251, 3252, 3253, and 3259 only)

4,910

3250A2

Chemical Manufacturing (3255 and 3256 only)

1,430

325400

Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing

1,480

326000

Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing

7,420

326100

Plastics Product Manufacturing

5,980

326200

Rubber Product Manufacturing

1,440

327000

Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing

4,110

331000

Primary Metal Manufacturing

2,220

331100

Iron and Steel Mills and Ferroalloy Manufacturing

170

331200

Steel Product Manufacturing from Purchased Steel

240

331300

Alumina and Aluminum Production and Processing

520

331400

Nonferrous Metal (except Aluminum) Production and Processing

350

331500

Foundries

930

332000

Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing

8,030

3320A1

Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing (3321, 3322, 3325, 3326, and 3329 only)

3,650

3320A2

Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing (3323 and 3324 only)

1,970

332700

Machine Shops; Turned Product; and Screw, Nut, and Bolt Manufacturing

500

332710

Machine Shops

340

332720

Turned Product and Screw, Nut, and Bolt Manufacturing

160

332800

Coating, Engraving, Heat Treating, and Allied Activities

1,910

333000

Machinery Manufacturing

5,300

3330A1

Machinery Manufacturing (3331, 3332, 3334, and 3339 only)

4,340

333300

Commercial and Service Industry Machinery Manufacturing

420

333500

Metalworking Machinery Manufacturing

390

333600

Engine, Turbine, and Power Transmission Equipment Manufacturing

150

334000

Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing

3,510

334100

Computer and Peripheral Equipment Manufacturing

30

334200

Communications Equipment Manufacturing

250

334300

Audio and Video Equipment Manufacturing

**

334400

Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing

1,810

334500

Navigational, Measuring, Electromedical, and Control Instruments Manufacturing

1,240

335000

Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Manufacturing

3,000

335100

Electric Lighting Equipment Manufacturing

290

335200

Household Appliance Manufacturing

60

335300

Electrical Equipment Manufacturing

590

335900

Other Electrical Equipment and Component Manufacturing

2,060

336000

Transportation Equipment Manufacturing

5,680

 336200

Motor Vehicle Body and Trailer Manufacturing

1,110

336300

Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing

1,540

336400

Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing

1,660

336500

Railroad Rolling Stock Manufacturing

30

336600

Ship and Boat Building

690

336900

Other Transportation Equipment Manufacturing

460

337000

Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing

1,200

3370A1

Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing (3371 and 3372 only)

960

337900

Other Furniture Related Product Manufacturing

240

339000

Miscellaneous Manufacturing

6,470

339100

Medical Equipment and Supplies Manufacturing

1,860

339900

Other Miscellaneous Manufacturing

4,600

339910

Jewelry and Silverware Manufacturing

200

000000

Cross-industry

194,360

 * Cross-industry employment estimates are a total of all sectors, sub-sectors, and industries. ** Indicates that an employment estimate is not available.

Source:

Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational Employment & Wage Statistics, Production

Workers, All Other, OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENT & WAGE STATISTICS

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Suggested Citation:

Lawrence Rohlfing, Industry Employment for Production Workers, All Other -- OEWS, California Social Security Attorney (September 12, 2021)  https://californiasocialsecurityattorney.blogspot.com