Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Garment Folder Represents 57,000 Jobs: How Do You Know That?

In two separate hearings, Mary Jesko testified as a vocational expert.  In neither case was Jesko prepared for cross-examination.  That puts the cases in post for interrogatories and possible supplemental hearings.  

Case #1:  Assume younger individual with limitation to light work; occasional postural activities; no crouching; limited to simple repetitive tasks defined as one- and two-step instructions; no fast paced work; at an observably slower pace.  Assuming less than a 10% loss of productivity measured over a day, Jesko identified:
Garment folder – 789.687-066 Light SVP 2
57,000 jobs
 Gluer – 795.687-014
Light SVP 2
20,000 jobs
 Steam Presser 789.687-166
Light SVP 1
28,000 jobs
When asked for the Standard Occupational Classification codes, Jesko said she didn't have them but would have to look them up on a crosswalk.  

When asked how she estimated the job numbers, Jesko testified that she used the Occupational Employment Statistics as the base and then considered the industries to get the job numbers.  
Q: Well, then you must have the OES numbers since you used the OES statistics. 
A: No, I would have to use the crosswalk to get the OES numbers.   
That is actually a good answer because the OES numbers and the SOC codes are the same six-digit codes.   Your intrepid examiner looked up the occupational groups on OccuCollect and posed them to Jesko.  Nope, she wouldn't acknowledge the easily ascertained information.  From OccuCollect's DOT full report, the first five lines:

DOT Code: 789.687-066
SOC Code: 51-9198.00
O*NET URL: https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/51-9198.00
DOT-O*NET Crosswalk: https://www.onetonline.org/crosswalk/DOT?s=789.687-066 &g=GO
DOT Name: Garment folder (garment)

SOC 51-9198 are the helpers production workers.  The OOH provides:

Occupational Outlook Handbook Report

Quick Facts: Helpers--production workers
Typical Entry-Level Education
High school diploma or equivalent
Work experience in a related occupation
None
On the job training
Short-term on-the-job training
Number of jobs, 2016
426,000
Employment Projections
The DOT crosswalk inside of the O*NET lists 553 distinct DOT codes that form helpers - production workers.  That pesky XLSX link in the OOH box opens up the Employment Projections for this group. The DOT narrative identifies the industry as garment; knitting.  The EP state the job numbers:
Code Title Employment
313-40 Textile mills and textile product mills 5.9
315-60 Apparel, leather and allied product manufacturing 3.2
The employment numbers are in thousands:  9,100 jobs in the textile and apparel manufacturing industry subsectors.  Our friends at Job Browser Pro identify industry groups 314900, 315200, and 315900.  The EP for those applicable subsectors:
CodeTitleEmployment
314000 Textile product mills 2.6
315000 Apparel manufacturing 2.6

Now we are down to 5,200 jobs in the nation.  JBP lists 30 helpers - production workers that exist in the textile product mills industry; 21 that exist in apparel manufacturing (315200); and 23 that exist in the second apparel manufacturing industry group (315900).  JBP estimates 63 garment folders in the nation.  

Jesko's affinity with the OES will not save her.  The current OES numbers as of May 2017 state that employment of helpers - production workers has declined to 402,140 jobs in the nation.  The top industry employing helpers is employment services (NAICS 561300) at 129,160 jobs.  The next highest employer of helpers is animal slaughtering and processing (NAICS 311600) at 24,210.  None of the next three industries amount to 57,000 jobs and none of them touch on the garment industries.  The OES does not throw a lifeline to Jesko.  

County Business Patterns will pour cement in the testimonial trap.  CBP now has the 2016 data.  For our two industry subsectors for this occupation:

NAICS code         Name                                          Paid Employees March 12, 2016

314                       Textile product mills                   113,013

315                       Apparel manufacturing               96,791

The EP provides the percentage of helpers in the industries:  2.2% and 2.0%.  

With a hotspot and computer or internet enabled phone everything presented here is available on the fly.  How does Mary Jesko know that there are 57,000 jobs as a garment folder in the national economy?  She doesn't.  There is no statistical support for that testimony.  

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