Thursday, June 28, 2018

Steam Presser and 20,000 Jobs -- Wholly Unreliable

Following up on the Mary Jesko-garment sorter kerfuffle, this time we look at Steam Presser.   To recap and make this post complete, the hypothetical question:

Case #1:  Assume younger individual with limitation to light work; occasional postural activities; no crouching; limited to simple repetitive tasks defined as one- and two-step instructions; no fast paced work; at an observably slower pace. 

Assuming less than a 10% loss of productivity measured over a day, Jesko identified:
Steam Presser 789.687-166
Light SVP 1
28,000 jobs
Jesko did not have the SOC codes, claimed that she used the OES codes, and did not have those either.  Jesko appeared by phone at the hearing wholly unprepared to submit to cross-examination. 

Using the easiest way to garner the information about the SOC/OES codes, I run to OccuCollect  From OccuCollect's DOT full report, the first five lines:

DOT Code: 789.687-166
SOC Code: 51-9198.00
DOT-O*NET Crosswalk: &g=GO
DOT Name: Seam steamer (garment)

Steam presser is not the name of the occupation, nor is it the alternate title, pipe steamer.  Using the non-title of the occupation serves the useful purpose of confusing the representative and masking the deception of the vocational expert.  Moving on.  Seam steamers have two very important commonalities with garment sorters:  they are in the same occupational group and in the same industry designation.  Any aggregate analysis will capture both.  So we look back at the Occupational Outlook Handbook and Employment Projections that we looked at for garment sorter. 

SOC 51-9198 are the helpers production workers.  The OOH provides:

Occupational Outlook Handbook Report

Quick Facts: Helpers--production workers
Typical Entry-Level Education
High school diploma or equivalent
Work experience in a related occupation
On the job training
Short-term on-the-job training
Number of jobs, 2016
Employment Projections

The DOT crosswalk inside of the O*NET lists 553 distinct DOT codes that form helpers - production workers.  That XLSX link in the OOH box opens up the Employment Projections for this group. The DOT narrative identifies the industry as garment; knitting.  The EP state the job numbers:
313-40Textile mills and textile product mills5.9
315-60Apparel, leather and allied product manufacturing3.2

The employment numbers are in thousands:  9,100 jobs in the textile and apparel manufacturing industry subsectors.  Our friends at Job Browser Pro identify industry groups 313200, 315100, and 315200.  The EP does not have a separate listing for 313000.  But we have basic math skills and take the 5,900 for 313-40 and subtract the number of jobs in 314000.  
314000Textile product mills2.6
That leaves 3,300 jobs that belong to the group 313000.  The EP captures the other two industry groups (315100 and 315200) in the subsector (315000):

Code                Title                                                                                                   Employment

315000Apparel manufacturing2.6

Now we are down to 5,900 jobs in the nation.  Aggregation takes Jesko down from 20,000 to 5,900 and that is not a valid end point for the statistical analysis.  Chasing the rabbit down the hole requires use of JBP, the OES, and CBP. 

JBP lists 40 helpers - production workers that exist in the textile mills industry (313200); 8 that exist in apparel knitting mills (315100), and 21 that exist in apparel manufacturing (315200).  JBP estimates 75 seam steamers in the nation.  

/The OES sinks Jesko.  The current OES numbers as of May 2017 state that employment of helpers - production workers has declined to 402,140 jobs in the nation.  The top industry employing helpers is employment services (NAICS 561300) at 129,160 jobs.  The next highest employer of helpers is animal slaughtering and processing (NAICS 311600) at 24,210.  None of the next three industries amount to 20,000 jobs and none of them touch on the garment industries.  The OES does not throw a bone to Jesko, not even a sliver.  

County Business Patterns will pour cement in the testimonial trap.  CBP now has the 2016 data.  For our two industry subsectors for this occupation:

NAICS code         Name                                          Paid Employees March 12, 2016

313                       Textile mills                               101,952
315                       Apparel manufacturing               96,791

The EP provides the percentage of helpers in the industries:  2.6% and 2.0%. The OccuCollect aided analysis would lead to a gross conclusion of about 4,000 helpers - production workers that includes seam steamer in the nation in these two industry subsectors. 

JBP does not identify the textile mills subsector; it identifies the fiber, yarn, and thread mills industry group.  Nor does JBP identify the three industry groups inside of 315000.  JBP identifies 315100 and 315200.  We know that there is at least one more (315900) from our look at garment sorter.  CBP describes those industries: 

NAICS code         Name                                          Paid Employees March 12, 2016

313100                  Fiber, Yarn, and Thread Mills    25,170
315100                  Apparel Knitting Mills               12,014
315200                  Cut and Sew Apparel Mfg.         5,430

Those aren't the helper jobs, those are ALL the jobs in the industry.  Take a slice out of 35,600 industry jobs.  Three percent gives a number larger than JBP reported and does not account for the 8, 21, and 40 other DOT codes that are both in the industry and are helpers - production workers.  

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