And Now for the Bad News -- Really Bad News

I had a recent hearing with vocational witness Skylar De Pedro. This is the first time I had a vocational witness testify to a straight Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) with an Occupation Requirements Survey (ORS) reduction for Specific Vocational Preparation (SVP) and exertion. I doubt it will be the last. 

If we examine general office clerks (SOC 43-9061) for full-time, unskilled, sedentary work, the www.occucollect calculator reports:

43-9061 - Office Clerks, General

Job Number Calculations
# of Jobs (OEWS 2023)	% Full-Time (O*NET 29.1)	# Full-Time
2,496,370	74%	1,847,314
# of Jobs	% Unskilled (ORS 2023)	# Unskilled
1,847,314	35.7%	659,491
# of Jobs	% Sedentary (ORS 2023)	# Sedentary
659,491	81.1%	534,847

Using the BLS-endorsed methodology, and applying the O*NET part-time data with the 2023 OEWS and 2023 ORS data, the estimate is over half a million jobs. That is a significant number by any stretch. We confirm that with the ORS report:

43-9061 - Office clerks, general

Education, Training, And Experience (values are Percentages or Days)

Occupational Requirements – specific vocational preparation	2018	2023	2024
specific vocational preparation is short demonstration only	4.4	2	1.1
specific vocational preparation is beyond short demonstration through 1 month	31.3	33.7	44.6

Physical Demands (values are Percentages, Pounds, or Hours)

Occupational Requirements – strength, exertion	2018	2023	2024
strength required is sedentary	73.3	81.1	84.6

And the O*NET:

Reporting O*NET Dataset 29.2

Custom Report for: 43-9061.00 - Office Clerks, General

Structural Job Characteristics	%	Response
Duration of Typical Work Week — Number of hours typically worked in one week.	15	More than 40 hours
	59	40 hours
	26	Less than 40 hours

 We don't reasonably expect to win a full range of sedentary medical-vocational profile case. That requires that we drill down in the data. Occasional contact with others as defined in the O*NET knocks the job number from over 500,000 jobs to about 10,000 jobs:

Interpersonal Relationships	%	Response
Contact With Others — How much does this job require the worker to be in contact with others (face-to-face, by telephone, or otherwise) in order to perform it?	82	Constant contact with others
	14	Contact with others most of the time
	2	Contact with others about half the time
	0	Occasional contact with others
	2	No contact with others

A limitation to simple work tasks (those not requiring a high school education or equivalent) out of the ORS data sets is not as dramatic an erosion:

Occupational Requirements – education	2018	2023	2024
no minimum education requirement	15.2	18.1	10.9
no minimum education required, and literacy is not required	--	<0.5	<0.5
no minimum education required, and literacy is required	--	<25	10.9
minimum education level is a high school diploma	78.7	74.4	84.1
minimum education level is a high school vocational degree	-	<0.5	--

Further erosion of the number of jobs depends on variables in the medical-vocational profile. Postural demands are not likely in sedentary work. Manipulation (gross, fine, and keyboarding) limitations will significantly erode the occupational base. Limitations in speech, hearing, and vision will have a dramatic, if not preclusive, impact on general office clerks. 

Once the witness uses the BLS-endorsed methodology for estimating the size of the exertion-skill occupational base, using the rest of the data is wide open. Use the data sets, plural intended, as the basis for cross and rebuttal evidence. 

Never surrender. 

___________________________

Suggested Citation:

Lawrence Rohlfing, And Now for the Bad News -- Really Bad News, California Social Security Attorney (March 25, 2025)  https://californiasocialsecurityattorney.blogspot.com

The author has been AV-rated since 2000 and listed in Super Lawyers since 2008.

When Looking at Job Numbers, Why Does Industry Matter?

In SSR 24-3p, the Commissioner of Social Security doubles down on the viability of the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) as a reliable source for occupational information as well as the quest for vocational witnesses to do something that they are not trained to do, estimate job numbers. EM-21065 REV 2 cautions that OccuBrowse (the first tier of SkillTRAN products) allows searches by a variety of other lists, "such as industry." The EM makes a more general statement about Job Browser Pro and notes that OASYS uses the same methodology for its data estimates. 

On top of this layer, the importance of industry and how industry impacts job numbers analysis is not predictable in hearings. Some vocational witnesses will use a SkillTRAN product, others reject them, some do not consider industry at all, and some make up their own unique black box that we do not get to see. In the age of SSR 24-3p and the general description of methodology, the industry in which an occupation exists matters.

The introduction to the DOT in the parts of the occupational definition, the DOT recognizes that it lists industry in every DOT code. It is in parentheses. The Employment Training Administration states:

In compiling information for the DOT, analysts were not able to study each occupation in all industries where it occurs. The industry designation, therefore, shows in what industries the occupation was studied but does not mean that it may not be found in others. Therefore, industry designations are to be regarded as indicative of industrial location, but not necessarily restrictive.

To use the DOT description as applicable to an occupation in an industry not contemplated by the DOT is a misuse of the DOT. The DOT description applies to the industry or industries in which ETA studied that occupation. The industry designation "is an integral and inseparable part of any occupational title. An industry designation often tells one or more things about an occupation." The "any industry" designation has alternate meanings:

    1. Nearly all industries

    2. In a number of industries, but not most industries and which  are not considered to have any particular industry attachment. 

The lead statement (after the alternate titles, if any) provides other information that is useful in "any industry" occupations to narrow the field. 

Job Browser Pro and OASYS assign the DOT codes to the industries in which SkillTRAN believes that the occupation exists. Why? Because the DOT states industry specifically or suggests the industries in the lead statement or task element statements. When a vocational witness does not or cannot provide industry designations using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), that testimony is inconsistent with the DOT. 

Where else are the NAICS codes used? Glad you asked. County Business Patterns (CBP) states aggregate job numbers in specific industries, industry groups, industry subsectors, and industry sectors. CBP provides the data county-by-county, state-by-state, and nationally. CBP is number (2) on the list of sources that SSA considers reliable. 20 CFR 404.1566(d)(2). CBP uses NAICS codes and so you every vocational witness (and representative). CBP provides a real challenge to novice users. OccuCollect does the work for users. 

Are there any other governmental data sources that use NAICS codes? We are on a roll, YES. The Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) provides job numbers at the occupation-industry intersection (SOC-NAICS) to the industry group (four non-zero digits) and some specific industries (five- and six-digits). The OEWS reports industry sector (two digits) and subsector (three digits) as well. The OEWS is mentioned as an acceptable source in SSR 24-3p. The OEWS data is difficulty to navigate. OccuCollect does the work for users. 

Is there another one? Yes there is. The Employment Projections table 1.8 (EP) provides industry-occupation matrix date by occupation and table 1.9 by industry. The EP data is very similar to the OEWS data and easier to use. OccuCollect reports that data and in a crosswalk report puts that data side-by-side to the OEWS data. 

Lens inserter and final assembler are in the optical goods industry. That is a very small industry inside of the industry group medical equipment and supplies manufacturing (NAICS 339100). Small products assembler I puts together small parts. The DOT says "any" but the job duties belie the "any" as meaning "all." Small products assembler works in parts of the manufacturing sector (NAICS 31-33) and more likely that the last third of that huge listing, NAICS 33xxxx. Small products assembler II has a job description dealing with wood products. Small products assembler II does not work with metals. See Employment Projections, 51-9199. The EP are the foundation of the Occupational Outlook Handbook and every SOC code in the OOH hyperlinks to the EP. The OOH is number (5) on the list for administrative notice. 20 CFR 404.1566(d)(5).

When an occupation does have a clear industry designation or the lead statement/task elements suggest or exclude industries, a representative must hold the vocational expert to the task of identifying the industries considered. Industry matters. That is unless the vocational witness studied the occupation in every industry. 

I doubt it. 

___________________________

Suggested Citation:

Lawrence Rohlfing, When Looking at Job Numbers, Why Does Industry Matter?, California Social Security Attorney (March 19, 2025)  https://californiasocialsecurityattorney.blogspot.com

The author has been AV-rated since 2000 and listed in Super Lawyers since 2008.

ORS Reports for SVP 1 or 2, 35-40 Hours per Week by Minimum Education

BLS reports "SVP level 1 or 2 and 35-40 weekly hours by Minimum Education Requirement" in an excel spreadsheet. This same report is replicated by SOC code on OccuCollect.com. Today, we look at electrical and electronic equipment assemblers (SOC 51-2022). Line 358 of the ORS report:

SOC	Occupation	Illiterate		No Min		HS or less
512022	Electrical and electronic equipment assemblers	<10	[15]	<10	[15]	26.3	10.1

The second number in each column is the standard error. If a user runs this report in OccuCollect, that person will get a null result. Why? Thanks for asking. The OOH and OEWS report combines SOC 51-2022 and 51-2023 to form electrical, electronic, and electromechanical assemblers, except coil winders, tapers, and finishers (SOC 51-2028). The OccuCollect report, sans the ORS header, reports:

51-2022 - Electrical and electronic equipment assemblers

SVP level 1 or 2 and 35-40 weekly hours by Minimum Education Requirement

The OOH Dataset does not report a Job numbers for this SOC.

Minimum Education Required	Percentage	# of Jobs
Total Jobs (OOH 2023)	100%	Not Reported
No literacy	<10%	Not Reported
No Minimum	<10%	Not Reported
High School Diploma	26.3%	Not Reported

There are job numbers in the OEWS and OOH. Running the OEWS data on the report states:

51-2028 -

SVP level 1 or 2 and 35-40 weekly hours by Minimum Education Requirement

Minimum Education Required	Percentage	# of Jobs
Total Jobs (OEWS 2023)	100%	267,440
No literacy	Not Reported	Not Reported
No Minimum	Not Reported	Not Reported
High School Diploma	Not Reported	Not Reported

Users can put those two together. There are less than 10% of jobs (< 26,744) jobs that do not require a high school education, some of those may not require literacy.  The problem gets worse. The 2018 and 2023 ORS date report on education states:

Occupational Requirements – education	2018	2023	2024
no minimum education requirement	26.7	23.1
no minimum education required, and literacy is not required	--	<10
no minimum education required, and literacy is required	--	<35
minimum education level is a high school diploma	66.8	66.7
minimum education level is a high school vocational degree	-	-	--
minimum education level is an associate's degree	-	-
minimum education level is an associate's vocational degree	-	-	--
minimum education level is a bachelor's degree	-	<0.5
minimum education level is a master's degree	-	<0.5
minimum education level is a doctorate degree	-	<0.5
minimum education level is a professional degree	-	<0.5

The ORS reports two-thirds of jobs require a high school education or equivalent (see the Collections Manual for the definition of high school education) and 23.1 to 26.7% of jobs have no minimum education requirement. Of those jobs that do not have a minimum education requirement, less than 35% require literacy and les than 10% do not require literacy. Less than 35% plus less than 10% equal 23.1%. That's stats. 

This aggregation of 90+% of jobs includes all skill levels. The ORS reports for skill level SVP1 and 2:

Occupational Requirements – specific vocational preparation	2018	2023	2024
specific vocational preparation is short demonstration only	-	<0.5
specific vocational preparation is beyond short demonstration through 1 month	29.2	29.2

The difference between 29.2% of jobs as unskilled and the report of 26.3% of jobs as requiring a high school diploma or less is answered by two syllables, part-time. There are approximately 70,300 jobs in the national economy for a person limited to unskilled work. Less than 10% of those jobs exist for a person limited to simple work, less than 7,000 jobs at all exertional levels. 

The regulations define a high school education as having the "abilities in reasoning, arithmetic, and language skills acquired through formal schooling." 20 CFR 404.1564(b)(4). A limitation to simple work is in fact a limitation on the ability to access a high school education under subsection (b), "the numerical grade level that you completed in school may not represent your actual educational abilities."

Of those less than 7,000 jobs at all exertion levels, the ORS tells us that less than 3,000 are sedentary and less than 1,500 are light jobs:

Occupational Requirements – strength, exertion	2018	2023	2024
strength required is sedentary	-	34
strength required is light work	28.3	20.8

In today's economy, the number of sedentary and light jobs for a person with a limited education or a limitation to simple work is less than 4,500. Less than is the critical phrase. Because SSA defines full-time work as a 40-hour workweek or an equivalent schedule, the reliable number is even lower. 

Proper presentation of the number of jobs as rebuttal evidence requires chasing the rabbit all the way down the hole, ignoring the Cheshire Cat, evading the Queen of Hearts, and escaping the a-statistical methodology used by witnesses with a request that the agency adhere to its promise -- administrative notice. 20 CFR f404.1566(d).

Be not afraid. 

___________________________

Suggested Citation:

Lawrence Rohlfing, ORS Reports for SVP 1 or 2, 35-40 Hours per Week by Minimum Education, California Social Security Attorney (March 1, 2025)  https://californiasocialsecurityattorney.blogspot.com

The author has been AV-rated since 2000 and listed in Super Lawyers since 2008.