Showing posts with label skilltran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label skilltran. Show all posts

Monday, August 11, 2025

Forfeiture of Step Five Vocational Issues -- Don't

Today, we examine Cain v. Bisignano, a published opinion by the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals. Cain has a residual functional capacity for sedentary work with no public interaction. We can assume that Cain is a younger individual with more than a marginal education. Thomas Dunleavy testifies that such a person can work as a “sorter (18,000 jobs), assembler (20,000 jobs), and visual inspector (21,000 jobs).” The hearing representative did nothing. The representative requested review and did nothing. The representative in court attacked the job numbers as insubstantial. Cain found the issue forfeit. Cain is correct.

The five step sequential evaluation process is well- and long-established. 20 CFR § 404.1520. A reasonable representative is prepared to address:

1.   Earnings during the relevant period of alleged disability.

2.   The existence of medically impairments.        

a.     Are they determinable by accepted clinical and laboratory diagnostic techniques?

b.     Are the impairments severe – do they cause a significant impact of the ability to perform basic work functions?

3.   Do the impairments:

a.     Meet a listed impairment in Appendix 1?

b.     Equal a listed impairment in Appendix 1?

c.     What is the residual functional capacity that the person retains?

4.   Can the claimant perform past relevant work?

a.     Does the claimant have past relevant work?

i.            In the five years before the decision and/or before the date last insured?

ii.    That the claimant performed long enough to learn how to do it?

iii.   That the claimant performed as substantial gainful:

1.     Based on earnings?

2.     Based on value of the services where the person is not a bona fide employee?

b.     Does the past relevant work require more than the residual functional capacity?

5.   Can the person perform other work:

a.     Considering age;

b.     Considering education;

c.     Considering work experience (transferable skills);

d.     Does the work exist in significant numbers?

Some representatives fail to do their job at steps 4.a and 5. Those issues involve numbers and representatives are math phobic. According to the Dictionary of Occupational Titles, working as a lawyer (and any representative doing legal work should be held to that standard) requires mathematics level 4. The DICOT defines math level 4:

ALGEBRA: Deal with system of real numbers; linear, quadratic, rational, exponential, logarithmic, angle and circular functions, and inverse functions: related algebraic solution of equations and inequalities: limits and continuity and probability and statistical inference. GEOMETRY: Deductive axiomatic geometry, plane and solid, and rectangular coordinates. SHOP MATH: Practical application of fractions, percentages, ratio and proportion, measurement, logarithms, practical algebra, geometric constructions, and essentials of trigonometry.

SkillTRAN states that math level 4 requires basic algebra. In the modern era, representative must understand and use statistics. That ability is embedded in math level 4 and more clearly required by math level 5. Representatives have at least a masters’ level education. Representatives have the education to do math levels 4 and 5.

A representative must cross-examine the vocational expert and challenge job numbers and methodology. Doing nothing is probably below the standard of care. Let’s look at the job numbers:

 

Occupation

JBP

ORS

OEWS

EP

SOEUQ

Sorter

521.687-086

2,370

 

 

<<3,639

<<3,666

 

 

8,210

SOC-NAICS

8,500

SOC-NAICS

5,481

Dowel Inspector

669.687-014

193

6,290

SOC-NAICS

6,500

SOC-NAICS

238

Film Touch Up Insp.

726.684-050

1,067

35,230

SOC-NAICS

33,900

SOC-NAICS

2,800

Final Assembler

713.687-018

71

<350

<366

3,790

SOC-NAICS

4,800

SOC-NAICS

74

 

We quickly discover that sorter and inspector in reside in the same SOC, inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and weighers 51-9061. Final assembler is a production workers, all other (SOC 51-9199) occupation. Neither JBP nor the SOEUQ identify many jobs, certainly not the number offered by Dunleavy. My guess is that Dunleavy used an old version of the OEQ and was completely oblivious to the fact that he identified 51-9061 occupations twice with the second unclear if it was dowel or film touch up inspector.

What does a representative need?

1.   Job Browser Pro or OASYS from SkillTRAN.

2.   OccuCollect to get an ORS based number using the Employment Projections (OOH) or OEWS job numbers.

3.   OEQ and SOEUQ.

Why? Because vocational experts use SkillTRAN, the ORS with the OOH or OEWS gross job numbers, and/or the OEQ/SOEUQ from US Publishing. If we don’t have ready access to SkillTRAN, OccuCollect, AND US Publishing data to cross-examine the witness on the fly, right there, right now, we will let the vocational witness steal from the client and rob the representative of fees.

Disjointed complaining is not sufficient.

1.   What is your methodology?

2.   Is your testimony consistent with:

a.   Job Browser Pro/OASYS?

b.   ORS using OEWS/EP?

c.    OEQ and for sedentary occupations SOEUQ?

3.   Is your testimony an accepted methodology in the community of vocational experts?

a.   Is your methodology unique to you?

While we ask those six questions, we pull up the source identified in question 1 or the three subparts of question 2. Then we read the data to the judge. We submit the data to the judge after the hearing. We used to drive back to the office. Now we use commute time to submit rebuttal briefs. Dunleavy’s testimony is typical of lazy witnesses that give the ALJ what the witness thinks the ALJ wants to hear. We must expose the lack of rational foundation for that testimony.

Don’t let Cain be the bane or your experience.

  ___________________________

Suggested Citation:

Lawrence Rohlfing, Forfeiture of Step Five Vocational Issues -- Don't, California Social Security Attorney (August 11, 2025, revised August 15, 2025) 

https://californiasocialsecurityattorney.blogspot.com


The author has been AV-rated since 2000 and listed in Super Lawyers since 2008.


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Sunday, January 5, 2025

Storage-Facility Rental Clerk -- The SkillTRAN Estimate and Reliability

The vocational witness (VW) identifies storage-facility rental clerk as an available occupation at step five of the sequential evaluation process. Relying on SkillTRAN (Job Browser Pro or OASYS) (ST), the VW describes 62,000 full-time light unskilled jobs. That is what ST says. A representative must unpack the ST estimate. 

 

  1. ST says that storage-facility rental clerk is a counter and rental clerk (SOC 41-2021) occupation.
  2. ST says that storage-facility rental clerk works in 
            a. Warehousing and storage (NAICS 493000) - three DOT codes
            b. Real estate (NAICS 531000) - one DOT code
            c. Drycleaning and laundry services (NAICS 812300) - eight DOT codes

Real estate employs 60,000 counter and rental clerks. Focus there. If the representative cannot beat back real estate, the game is over. I first check the occupation-industry intersection for the EP and OEWS. OccuCollect calls this the 2023 EP X OEWS Job Numbers Crosswalk Report. That report lists 97,100 and 94,630 jobs in the EP and OEWS respectively. 


NAICS

INDUSTRY

EP 2023 #'s

OEWS 2023 #'s

531000

Real estate

97,100

94,630

 ST reports 59% of jobs as full-time. A small reduction but not much. The O*NET reports 60% as full-time jobs.

 The 2022 County Business Patterns reports:


531

Real estate

1,801,455

5311

Lessors of real estate

600,728

5312

Offices of real estate agents and brokers

416,530

5313

Activities related to real estate

784,197

 Storage-facility rental clerk works in leasing storage units. The NAICS group lessors of real estate, a third of the real estate job numbers. Drill down again:


NAICS

Industry Title

Jobs

531

Real estate

1,801,455

5311

Lessors of real estate

600,728

53111

Lessors of residential buildings and dwellings

345,421

531110

Lessors of residential buildings and dwellings

345,421

53112

Lessors of nonresidential buildings (except miniwarehouses)

172,451

531120

Lessors of nonresidential buildings (except miniwarehouses)

172,451

53113

Lessors of miniwarehouses and self-storage units

47,056

531130

Lessors of miniwarehouses and self-storage units

47,056

And there is the answer. Storage-facility rental clerk do not work in residential buildings and dwellings or nonresidential buildings; that occupation exists in the industry of lessors of miniwarehouses and self-storage units. That industry employs 47,000 people in all occupations including counter and rental clerks.

Storage-facility rental clerk cannot amount to 60,000 full-time or 100,000 part-time jobs where the occupation has the purpose of “Leases storage space to customers of rental storage facility.” DICOT 295.367-026.

The case needs better information. The representative should follow the hyperlink to the BLS native EP report, and then selects counter and rental clerks (SOC 41-2021), the BLS reports no data for the groups or industries in NAICS 531. The EP does report that 24% of counter and rental clerks work in the subsector NAICS 531 and that 5.2% of the jobs in NAICS 531 work as counter and rental clerk. The representative should use that number, 5.2%, against industry employment of 47,000 jobs. The result is less than 5,000 jobs. The full-time number of jobs is less than 3,000.

Why is ST unreliable for storage-facility rental clerk? ST uses the industry subsector for estimating jobs. ST uses the industry subsector because neither the EP nor the OEWS report jobs for the industry groups or specific industries. Users must compare the DOT code to the scope of NAICS 531 as reported by the Census Bureau (use the NAICS Manual) or County Business Patterns. This also means that other DOT codes or non-DOT alternate titles for counter and rental clerk exist within the NAICS 531 subsector. The estimate of 60,000 full-time jobs is untenable and indefensible.

Nor does the data support 60,000 jobs as a storage-facility rental clerk to the exclusion of all other light unskilled DOT codes. The O*NET reports 60% of the 390,300 counter and rental clerk jobs are full-time. The 2023 ORS reports 65% of jobs represent SVP 2 work. The ORS reports 49.5% of jobs require light exertion. The OccuCollect calculator reports:

41-2021 - Counter and Rental Clerks

Job Number Calculations

# of OEWS Jobs

% Full-Time

# Full-Time

390,300

60%

234,180

# of Jobs

% SVP 2

# SVP 2

234,180

65%

152,217

# of Jobs

% Light

# Light

152,217

49.5%

75,347

 There are 24 DOT codes associated with this SOC group, you can find more information on these DOT codes by running the 2019 O*NET-SOC To DOT Crosswalk Report 

The SOC-DOT crosswalk reports eight light unskilled DOT codes resident in counter and rental clerks.

24 DOT title(s) in this DOT-SOC O*NET-SOC Crosswalk Report
1 DOT title(s) in this DOT-SOC O*NET-SOC Crosswalk Report are Sedentary
19 DOT title(s) in this DOT-SOC O*NET-SOC Crosswalk Report are Light
      8 are SVP 2
4 DOT title(s) in this DOT-SOC O*NET-SOC Crosswalk Report are Medium
      2 are SVP 2

Users should consult the O*Net Alternate Titles Report for a more comprehensive list of occupations within this group.

This data suggests that relying on the generic title of counter and rental clerks (SOC 41-2021) as representing 75,300 jobs satisfies the Commissioner’s step five burden. The agency has not yet said that SOC code descriptions are enough. The agency could say that and SSR 24-3p leaves that possibility open.

If the claimant is under 55 and capable of the full range of light work, that person will lose. The representative must develop the record to establish other limitations whether physical, cognitive, environmental, or educational to further erode this SOC group.

___________________________

Suggested Citation:

Lawrence Rohlfing, Storage-Facility Rental Clerk -- The SkillTRAN Estimate and Reliability, California Social Security Attorney (January 5, 2025) https://californiasocialsecurityattorney.blogspot.com


The author has been AV-rated since 2000 and listed in Super Lawyers since 2008.








Friday, May 17, 2024

A Vocational Expert Responds -- and I Reply

 I wrote about the Reliability of the Occupational Requirements Survey in May 2022. This week, a vocational witness left this reply:

Here is where I am, as a Vocational Expert. Since the ORS groups things by SOC code and not a specific DOT code, it is impossible to break down all the variables to a point that it is reliable. You can have a SOC with, let's say, 20 DOT codes. We can not assume that each job would match the ORS information. And, as an expert, I have to use all the ORS data, even down to "ramps and stairs" and "ladders ropes and scaffolds". Pretty much made up my mind to walk away until they fix this mess which we all know might never happen.

This is a really good response. How does anyone break down the SOC groups to apply to individual DOT codes? Fair comment. If a VW cannot break down the data in the ORS to the individual DOT codes, how does a VW break down the one variable from the Employment Projections (the foundation of the OOH) or the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS, used by SkillTRAN) -- job numbers -- to any individual DOT code? 

Whatever methodology a statistician uses to break down job numbers, that statistician would use the same techniques for breaking down the physical, cognitive, environmental, or experiential requirements of work described in the ORS. SkillTRAN uses an occupational density model (an opaque phrase). That method uses the industry designation or the job duty descriptions to pick industries appropriate for that DOT code. SkillTRAN engages that process for all DOT codes. Using OEWS and County Business Patterns data, SkillTRAN accumulates the job numbers for that SOC/OEWS code at those industry (NAICS) intersections, and then divides by the number of DOT codes. Adding up the job numbers in each SOC-NAICS intersection results in a job number estimate. SkillTRAN uses the suspect equal distribution method for calculating job numbers at the SOC-NAICS intersection. 

The ORS is a blunt knife. With the data that is now available, the question asks whether it is possible for the job number suggested by SkillTRAN or the VW to be reliable. Vague discussions don't help. Examples crystalize the problem. 

There are 1,590 DOT codes aggregated in production workers, all other including 52 of the 137 sedentary unskilled DOT codes. The 2022 EP estimates that 275,300 jobs exist for this broad occupational group. The OEWS estimates 243,500 jobs. The ORS reports a null estimate for sedentary jobs regardless of skill level. SkillTRAN reports less than 0.5%. Any estimate over 1,376 jobs for all sedentary occupations (skilled, semi-skilled, and unskilled) does not conform to the ORS. 

Production workers, all other contains 405 light unskilled DOT codes. The ORS reports 11.1% of the jobs represent light work. Let's round off and call it 30,000 light jobs. Any testimony that there are 30,000 light unskilled jobs in a single light unskilled DOT code conflicts with the ORS. Accounting for the 26.4% of unskilled work and engaging the assumption that skill levels distribute across the exertional levels permits less than 3,000 light unskilled production workers in 405 DOT codes. 

This application of the ORS does not try to tease out the job numbers for a DOT code. This application of the ORS extracts the job numbers for the set of jobs that have the overarching characteristic. It is more difficult when the question layers the claimant with multiple limitations -- e.g., social, manipulative, pace. But if we know that light production workers, all other represent 30,000 jobs and unskilled workers at all exertional levels in that group represent fewer than 75,000 jobs, we know that no single light unskilled DOT code could ever represent more jobs. We know that the 52 sedentary DOT codes represent less than 1,400 jobs. 

The ORS, like the EP and the OEWS, does not lend itself to DOT job numbers. That troika of sources does establish the number of jobs within an occupation-industry intersection and the aggregate number of jobs with the critical characteristics at issue. Inside of those boxes, the VW can exercise experience. But they can never reliably estimate job numbers outside of the boxes erected by the data sources. 

Using the ORS is not easy. I agree with Gilkison. The difficulty is why the agency calls the VW an expert. You are called upon to engage in statistical analysis that is not part of the general requirements to be a VW. So when the ALJ asks for a sedentary unskilled reasoning level 1 occupation, tell the ALJ that lens inserter does not exist in any significant number. You can back up that testimony with the EP, the OEWS, the ORS, and County Business Patterns. 

Use the data.


___________________________

Suggested Citation:

Lawrence Rohlfing, A Vocational Expert Responds -- and I Reply, California Social Security Attorney (May 17, 2024)

https://californiasocialsecurityattorney.blogspot.com

The author has been AV-rated since 2000 and listed in Super Lawyers since 2008.




 

 


Tuesday, November 14, 2023

SkillTRAN's Comprehensive List of Sedentary Unskilled Simple Occupations -- And the Number of Jobs

SkillTRAN publishes a list of 127 sedentary unskilled occupations that qualify as simple, repetitive. or routine work (reasoning levels 1 and 2). We have discussed this issue in the past. SkillTRAN estimates these job numbers as of May 3, 2021. That is not the publication date for the article, is the release date of the OES (now OEWS) data on May 3, 2021, for data as of May 2020. 

SkillTRAN estimates that there are 58,000 full-time jobs that are sedentary, unskilled, and SRT using the SkillTRAN methodology for estimating job numbers. Sounds significant, but do all those jobs count according to SkillTRAN?

The most numerous occupation accounting for almost 34,000 jobs is escort-vehicle driver (DOT 919.663-022). SkillTRAN does not describe the DOT as accurate or reliable for escort-vehicle driver as sedentary. 

  1. Escort-vehicle driver requires eye-hand coordination level 3 (the average range, inconsistent with unskilled work). 
  2. Escort-vehicle driver requires constant exertion of negligible force (inconsistent with frequent exertion of negligible force for sedentary work but consistent with light work). 
  3. Escort-vehicle driver could require the rapid application of greater than 20 pounds of force on the brake pedal (inconsistent with sedentary and light work but consistent with medium work). 

If Job Browser Pro or any other SkillTRAN product describes the existence of work, this article addressing escort-vehicle driver in an inconsistent statement. If the vocational witness identifies escort-vehicle driver without using a SkillTRAN product, then careful examination needs to focus on the eye-hand coordination, the constant exertion of negligible force, and the occasional (from seldom to one-third of the day) application of greater than 20 pounds of force. Some vocational witnesses will voluntarily withdraw escort-vehicle driver, and they should. 

The second and third most numerous occupations on the list are addresser (DOT 209.587-010) and tube operator (DOT 239.687-014). These represent less than 2,400 and 2,300 jobs respectively. In a 2015 presentation at an ALJ Training, SkillTRAN laid out the problem with addresser -- it is hard to find. OIDAP calls that obsolete. On the OIDAP list of obsolete occupations, we find tube operator. The second and third most numerous occupations that fit the unskilled sedentary SRT hypothetical are obsolete. The ALJ training also labeled escort-vehicle driver as "not really sedentary." 

**SkillTRAN lists document preparer, election clerk, call-out operator, and surveillance-system monitor on its list of examples of sedentary unskilled occupations. These four occupations require reasoning level 3. SkillTRAN criticizes all six targets of vocational identification as the result of "rehabbers/occupational health." **

The first three occupations should not count. The count stands at fewer than 20,000 jobs. 

The next most numerous occupation is nut sorter (DOT 521.687-086). The 2021 estimate of job numbers comes in at a paltry 1,900 jobs. You may remember that the vocational expert in Biestek v. Berryhill, 139 S.Ct. 1148 (2019) testified under oath that her undisclosed personal labor market survey found 120,000 sorter jobs in the nation. The vocational witness in Biestek was at best unreasonably wrong. No one believes that nut sorter represents 120,000 jobs. This juxtaposition illustrates the depth of the vocational witness problem in Social Security disability cases. 

Ten DOT codes report no jobs. Ten DOT codes report 10 or fewer jobs. Thirty-four DOT codes report between 12 and 20 jobs. Twelve DOT codes report between 21 and 30 jobs.  Twenty-five DOT codes report between 31 and 100 jobs. Twenty-eight DOT codes report between 101 and 1,000 jobs. Six DOT codes, including nut sorter, report more than 1,000 but fewer than 2,000 jobs. 

Every claimant limited to sedentary SRT work at step 5 of the sequential evaluation process should win. There are not a significant number of jobs in the national economy that reliably exist. Adding in the most insignificant additional limitation (occasional contact with others, limiting sitting to six hours) solidifies the conclusion. Don't let vocational witnesses spread the Biestek lie. 

But you had me at sedentary SRT. 


___________________________

Suggested Citation:

Lawrence Rohlfing, SkillTRAN's Comprehensive List of Sedentary Unskilled Simple Occupations -- And the Number of Jobs, California Social Security Attorney (November 14, 2023)

https://californiasocialsecurityattorney.blogspot.com

The author has been AV-rated since 2000 and listed in Super Lawyers since 2008.