Thursday, December 6, 2018

Sales Attendant with a Limited Education and a Sit-Stand Option-- Using the ORS to Estimate Job Numbers

We start with the vocational expert identifying the occupation of sales attendant (DOT 299.677-010).  The DOT describes the occupation:

299.677-010 SALES ATTENDANT (retail trade) alternate titles: attendant, self-service store
Performs any combination of following duties to provide customer service in self-service store: Aids customers in locating merchandise. Answers questions from and provides information to customer about merchandise for sale. Obtains merchandise from stockroom when merchandise is not on floor. Arranges stock on shelves or racks in sales area. Directs or escorts customer to fitting or dressing rooms or to cashier. Keeps merchandise in order. Marks or tickets merchandise. Inventories stock.
GOE: 09.04.02 STRENGTH: L GED: R3 M1 L2 SVP: 2 DLU: 81
We move to the Occupational Outlook Handbook, employment projections, or occupational employment statistics to see the size of the occupational group, 41-2031 - Retail Salespersons.  

41-2031 - Retail Salespersons
Typical Education Needed
No formal educational credential
Work Experience in a Related Occupation
None
Typical On-The-Job Training Needed to Attain Competency
Short-term on-the-job training
2016 Employment
4,602,500

The prospect of a multi-million job occupational base that requires no formal education and short-term training (unskilled) represents a particular problem for a person under the age of 55 and capable of some range of light work.  The first step in understanding the occupational group is to determine whether other non-light non-unskilled work exist in this group.  

DOTCode
DOTTitle
SVP
STRENGTH
INDTTL
260.357-026
SALESPERSON, FLOWERS
4
L
(retail trade)
261.351-010
SALESPERSON, WIGS
4
L
(personal ser.; retail trade)
261.354-010
SALESPERSON, CORSETS
5
L
(retail trade)
261.357-042
SALESPERSON, FURS
5
L
(retail trade)
261.357-046
SALESPERSON, INFANTS' AND CHILDREN'S WEAR
3
L
(retail trade)
261.357-050
SALESPERSON, MEN'S AND BOYS' CLOTHING
4
L
(retail trade)
261.357-054
SALESPERSON, MEN'S FURNISHINGS
4
L
(retail trade)
261.357-058
SALESPERSON, MILLINERY
3
L
(retail trade)
261.357-062
SALESPERSON, SHOES
4
L
(retail trade)
261.357-066
SALESPERSON, WOMEN'S APPAREL AND ACCESSORIES
3
L
(retail trade)
261.357-070
SALESPERSON, YARD GOODS
3
L
(retail trade)
261.357-074
SALESPERSON, LEATHER-AND-SUEDE APPAREL-AND-ACCESSORIES
5
L
(retail trade)
262.357-018
SALESPERSON, COSMETICS AND TOILETRIES
4
L
(retail trade)
270.352-010
SALESPERSON, SEWING MACHINES
6
M
(retail trade)
270.357-018
SALESPERSON, CHINA AND SILVERWARE
4
L
(retail trade; wholesale tr.)
270.357-022
SALESPERSON, CURTAINS AND DRAPERIES
4
L
(retail trade)
270.357-026
SALESPERSON, FLOOR COVERINGS
4
L
(retail trade; wholesale tr.)
270.357-030
SALESPERSON, FURNITURE
4
L
(retail trade)
270.357-034
SALESPERSON, HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES
4
L
(retail trade)
270.357-038
SALESPERSON, STEREO EQUIPMENT
4
M
(retail trade)
271.354-010
SALESPERSON, ELECTRIC MOTORS
6
L
(retail trade; wholesale tr.)
272.357-022
SALESPERSON, HORTICULTURAL AND NURSERY PRODUCTS
4
L
(retail trade; wholesale tr.)
273.353-010
SALESPERSON, AUTOMOBILES
6
L
(retail trade)
273.357-018
SALES REPRESENTATIVE, BOATS AND MARINE SUPPLIES
5
L
(retail trade; wholesale tr.)
273.357-030
SALESPERSON, AUTOMOBILE ACCESSORIES
4
L
(retail trade; wholesale tr.)
273.357-034
SALESPERSON, TRAILERS AND MOTOR HOMES
5
L
(retail trade)
276.257-018
SALESPERSON, ORTHOPEDIC SHOES
6
L
(retail trade)
277.354-010
SALESPERSON, PIANOS AND ORGANS
6
L
(retail trade)
277.357-034
SALESPERSON, BOOKS
4
L
(retail trade)
277.357-038
SALESPERSON, MUSICAL INSTRUMENTS AND ACCESSORIES
6
L
(retail trade)
277.357-042
SALESPERSON, PETS AND PET SUPPLIES
4
L
(retail trade)
277.357-046
SALESPERSON, PHONOGRAPH RECORDS AND TAPE RECORDINGS
3
L
(retail trade)
277.357-050
SALESPERSON, PHOTOGRAPHIC SUPPLIES AND EQUIPMENT
5
L
(retail trade; wholesale tr.)
277.357-054
SALESPERSON, SHEET MUSIC
5
L
(retail trade)
277.357-058
SALESPERSON, SPORTING GOODS
5
L
(retail trade)
277.357-062
SALESPERSON, STAMPS OR COINS
5
L
(retail trade; wholesale tr.)
277.357-066
SALESPERSON, TOY TRAINS AND ACCESSORIES
3
L
(retail trade)
277.457-010
SALESPERSON, ART OBJECTS
4
L
(retail trade)
279.357-046
SALESPERSON, FLYING SQUAD
6
L
(retail trade)
279.357-050
SALESPERSON, GENERAL HARDWARE
4
L
(retail trade; wholesale tr.)
279.357-054
SALESPERSON, GENERAL MERCHANDISE
3
L
(retail trade; wholesale tr.)
279.357-058
SALESPERSON, JEWELRY
5
L
(retail trade)
290.477-014
SALES CLERK
3
L
(retail trade)
299.377-010
PLATFORM ATTENDANT
3
H
(food prep., nec)
299.467-010
LAYAWAY CLERK
3
L
(retail trade)
299.677-010
SALES ATTENDANT
2
L
(retail trade)

Retail Salespersons contains just one light unskilled occupation, sales attendant but it represents at least a plurality if not the majority of the jobs to justify the OOH classification as unskilled.  Not only is sales attendant the only light unskilled occupation, it is the only unskilled occupation.  

Common sense takes hold and we examine whether the occupational group represents full-time or part-time work.  For that purpose, we turn to the O*NET OnLine.  

Structural Job Characteristics
%
Response
Duration of Typical Work Week — Number of hours typically worked in one week.
38
More than 40 hours
9
40 hours
53
Less than 40 hours


(% of full-time or greater) * 40 + (% of part-time) * x = 100(%) * (average # of hours) 
47*40 + 53x = 100*30.2
1880 + 53x = 3020
53x = 1140
x = 21.3

Assuming the 21.3 hours per week and the O*NET report of $11.16 median hourly wage, average monthly earnings amount to $1,030.07, below the threshold of substantial gainful activity.  We started with 4,602,500 jobs but we now are concerned with 47% of those jobs, or 2,163,175 jobs.  

We know from the occupation list that most of the DOT codes require something other than light exertion and a dearth of skills.  To examine that categorization, we turn to the Occupational Requirements Survey.  

41-2031.00 (retail salespersons)

Series ID: ORUV1000067100000064
Not seasonally adjusted
Series Title: % of retail salespersons; svp is short demonstration only
Requirement: Education, Training, And Experience
Occupation: retail salespersons
Estimate: svp is short demonstration only
Year
Period
Estimate
2017
Annual
2.7

Series ID: ORUV1000067100000065
Not seasonally adjusted
Series Title: % of retail salespersons; svp is beyond short demonstration, up to & including 1 month
Requirement: Education, Training, And Experience
Occupation: retail salespersons
Estimate: svp is beyond short demonstration, up to & including 1 month
Year
Period
Estimate
2017
Annual
66.6

The ORS confirms the OOH classification of the group as unskilled.  The ORS pegs 2.7% of the jobs as SVP 1 and 66.6% of jobs as SVP 2.  The unskilled percentage of the occupational group is 69.3%.  While we started with 2,163,175 jobs as full-time and substantial gainful activity, the unskilled number of those jobs drops to 1,499,080.  

 We assumed at the outset the presence of a limited education.  BLS reports education level of incumbents, not the education level required.  the ORS reports the latter:

Series ID: ORUV1000067100000076
Not seasonally adjusted
Series Title: % of retail salespersons; minimum education level is a high school diploma
Requirement: Education, Training, And Experience
Occupation: retail salespersons
Estimate: minimum education level is a high school diploma
Year
Period
Estimate
2017
Annual
41.9

This data allows the reduction of the number of jobs available to a claimant with a limited education to 58.1% of the number of full-time jobs -- 870,966 jobs.  If the claimant has a limitation to four hours of standing/walking and four hours of sitting in a full-time workday, the ORS informs the next step reduction:

Series ID: ORUP1000067100001004
Not seasonally adjusted
Series Title: retail salespersons; % of day standing/walking is required (10th percentile)
Requirement: Physical Demands
Occupation: retail salespersons
Estimate: % of day standing/walking is required (10th percentile)
Year
Period
Estimate
2017
Annual
50

Series ID: ORUP1000067100001002
Not seasonally adjusted
Series Title: retail salespersons; % of day sitting is required (90th percentile)
Requirement: Physical Demands
Occupation: retail salespersons
Estimate: % of day sitting is required (90th percentile)
Year
Period
Estimate
2017
Annual
50

The two pieces of data correspond, 10% of jobs require standing/walking 50% of the day or less and 10% of the jobs require sitting 50% of the day or more.  The interim conclusion is that 10% of the jobs are available to the claimant -- 87,097.  But we are looking for people that have the option of sitting-standing at will, the sit-stand option.  

Series ID: ORUP1000067100000139
Not seasonally adjusted
Series Title: % of retail salespersons; sitting vs. standing/walking at will is allowed
Requirement: Physical Demands
Occupation: retail salespersons
Estimate: sitting vs. standing/walking at will is allowed
Year
Period
Estimate
2017
Annual
9.8

The need for the sit-stand option leaves 8,536 jobs.  But we still need to limit the jobs to those requiring light exertion and exclude those requiring medium or heavy exertion.  

Series ID: ORUP1000067100000234
Not seasonally adjusted
Series Title: retail salespersons; pounds maximum weight lifted/carried (10th percentile)
Requirement: Physical Demands
Occupation: retail salespersons
Estimate: pounds maximum weight lifted/carried (10th percentile)
YearPeriodEstimate
2017Annual10
Series ID: ORUP1000067100000235
Not seasonally adjusted
Series Title: retail salespersons; pounds maximum weight lifted/carried (25th percentile)
Requirement: Physical Demands
Occupation: retail salespersons
Estimate: pounds maximum weight lifted/carried (25th percentile)
YearPeriodEstimate
2017Annual25
Series ID: ORUP1000067100000239
Not seasonally adjusted
Series Title: % of retail salespersons; lifting/carrying up to 10 lbs is required, seldom
Requirement: Physical Demands
Occupation: retail salespersons
Estimate: lifting/carrying up to 10 lbs is required, seldom
YearPeriodEstimate
2017Annual14
Series ID: ORUP1000067100000240
Not seasonally adjusted
Series Title: % of retail salespersons; lifting/carrying > 10 lbs & <= 20 lbs is required, seldom
Requirement: Physical Demands
Occupation: retail salespersons
Estimate: lifting/carrying > 10 lbs & <= 20 lbs is required, seldom
YearPeriodEstimate
2017Annual9.8
Series ID: ORUP1000067100000241
Not seasonally adjusted
Series Title: % of retail salespersons; lifting/carrying > 20 lbs & <= 50 lbs is required, seldom
Requirement: Physical Demands
Occupation: retail salespersons
Estimate: lifting/carrying > 20 lbs & <= 50 lbs is required, seldom
YearPeriodEstimate
2017Annual71.2

The profile does not give light percentages of jobs.  We use the maximum weight lifted and the seldom weight lifted to deduce that the number of jobs that require light exertion or less is 23.8% of the jobs.  

The number of sales attendant jobs for a person with a limited education at the light level of exertion with four hours of standing/walking and four hours of sitting with a sit-stand option is approximately 2,032 jobs.  

This approach uses a granular distribution method.  It assumes that the percentages of work characteristics have the same distribution -- serially reducing the number of jobs at each layer.  The associative properties of mathematics mean that it does not matter the order in which the percentages are applied, just that they are each applied sequentially.  That observation allows us to remove a single criterion such as a high school education or six hours of standing/walking without redoing the entire calculation.  

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