Bakery Worker, Conveyor Line Presents an Enigma -- 414 Jobs

We start with the identification of bakery worker, conveyor line because the ALJ posed a limitation to occasional reaching, handling, or fingering to the vocational expert.  The number if jobs in this DOT code is about 414.  The first five lines of the Occu Collect DOT report:

DOT Code: 524.687-022
DOT Name: BAKERY WORKER, CONVEYOR LINE (bakery products)

SOC Code: 51-3099.00
O*NET URL: https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/51-3099.00
DOT-O*NET Crosswalk: https://www.onetonline.org/crosswalk/DOT?s=524.687-022&g=GO

The first problem that jumps out is that Occu Collect reports the occupation belongs to SOC code 51-3099 but O*NET reports that the occupation belongs to 51-9199.  In publishing the 2010 SOC system, BLS made changes to the SOC structure.  The crosswalk between the 2000 and 2010 SOC provides the trail for the creation of 51-3099.  Here are the lines that we care about:

2000 SOC code	2000 SOC title	2010 SOC code	2010 SOC title
51-9199	Production Workers, All Other*	51-9199	Production Workers, All Other
51-9199	Production Workers, All Other*	51-3099	Food Processing Workers, All Other

Job Browser Pro moved 61 DOT codes to 51-3099, reducing the glut in 51-9199.  BLS did not.  BLS continues to report jobs in the food subsector as performed by production workers, all other as well as jobs in the food industry subsector as performed by food processing workers, all other.  The occupation-industry matrix, sorted by industry, reports the number of estimated jobs with sectors, subsectors, industry group and a few industries.  The EP for employment in the bakeries and tortilla manufacturing subsetor:

Employment by industry, occupation, and percent distribution, 2016 and projected 2026
311800 Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing
(Employment in thousands) Occupations with fewer than 50 jobs, confidential data, or poor quality data are not displayed
	Occupation		2016
Sort Order	Code	Title	Employment	Percent of industry
1	00-0000	Total, all occupations	304.0	100.0
165	51-3099	Food processing workers, all other	1.5	0.5
188	51-9199	Production workers, all other	1.4	0.5

Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing is the right industry group.  From the NAICS manual, the four digit industry groups within the food manufacturing subsector:

2012 NAICS code	Meaning of 2012 NAICS code
311	Food manufacturing
3111	Animal food manufacturing
3112	Grain and oilseed milling
3113	Sugar and confectionery product manufacturing
3114	Fruit and vegetable preserving and specialty food manufacturing
3115	Dairy product manufacturing
3116	Animal slaughtering and processing
3117	Seafood product preparation and packaging
3118	Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing
3119	Other food manufacturing

Putting together the split of production workers, the continued report of jobs in both occupational groups, any observation that moving the 61 DOT codes, including bakery worker, conveyor line, leaves no DOT codes to perform the production workers jobs, the only reasonable treatment is to continue to treat the 61 DOT codes as existing in 51-9199 and co-existing in 51-3099.  With that conclusion, we can address the 2,900 job estimate in the two SOC codes.  There are seven DOT codes that are classified by the O*NET as 51-3099 and by JBP as 51-9199 that the DOT industry list classifies as in the bakery products industry:

DOT CODE	DOT NAME	SVP	STRENGTH
520.587-010	PRETZEL TWISTER	2	L
524.687-022	BAKERY WORKER, CONVEYOR LINE	2	L
526.682-010	BATTER SCALER	4	L
526.682-022	DOUGHNUT-MACHINE OPERATOR	4	L
526.684-010	DOUGHNUT MAKER	4	M
526.685-034	PAN GREASER, MACHINE	2	L
526.685-038	PIE MAKER, MACHINE	4	M

At this level of analysis, JBP resorts to the equal-distribution method.  Dividing 2,900 by 7 yields 414 jobs per DOT code.  

The 2,900 job estimate representing 1% of industry employment fits with the report of 2016 jobs by County Business Patterns.  A more refined analysis of the industries and the specific industries contained in the subsector could exclude cookie, cracker, and pasta manufacturing as well as tortilla manufacturing but most of the jobs in the subsector exist n the bread and bakery product manufacturing industry.  

2012 NAICS	NAICS Description	Employment
3118	Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing	295,047
31181	Bread and bakery product manufacturing	215,116
311811	Retail bakeries	64,700
311812	Commercial bakeries	127,152
311813	Frozen cakes, pies, and other pastries manufacturing	23,264
31182	Cookie, cracker, and pasta manufacturing	60,558
311821	Cookie and cracker manufacturing	37,602
311824	Dry pasta, dough, and flour mixes manufacturing from purchased flour	22,956
31183	Tortilla manufacturing	19,373
311830	Tortilla manufacturing	19,373

Paid employees for pay period including March 12 (number)

Drilling down that far is not necessary.  It is enough to observe that estimating a job number higher than 414 lacks reliability.  The number is probably lower.