Wednesday, September 5, 2018

Proof of Use of the Equal Distribution Method of Calculating Job Numbers by the OEQ

Several vocational experts have testified that the Occupational Employment Quarterly uses a very complicated occupational density model to estimate job numbers based on exertion and skill level.  The testimony that the vocational experts give is demonstrably false.

I broke down and order the 4th Quarter 2017 OEQ and will likely buy the 2018 OEQ next year.  Representatives should have a copy of the OEQ to use in cross-examination.  The point is to prove that the OEQ uses an equal distribution method of stating job numbers.  I converted the rows used in the OEQ into columns.  I divided the total number of jobs by the total number of occupations.  That is the average number of jobs per DOT code.  I took the number of jobs reported in each of the 12 columns (rows on my chart) and divided that reported number by the average I previously computed.  The last column of my calculations is rounded to the nearest hundredth.  I then totaled my raw calculation and the rounded calculation just for fun.  Here is what I got:

SOC-OES Code
51-9199
Calculations
Census Code
8965
SOC - OES CODE TITLES
Production Workers, All Other
Average

Current # Employed
771,069
485.254248

# DOT Titles
1589
 Quotient
Rounded
UNSKILLED EMPLOYMENT
(SVP=1 OR SVP=2)
Sed.
25,233
51.99954479
52.00
Light
196,528
405.000061
405.00
Med.
89,772
184.9999261
185.00
Heavy +
20,866
43.00013877
43.00
SEMI-SKILLED EMPLOYMENT
(SVP=3 OR SVP=4)
Sed.
17,954
36.99916091
37.00
Light
162,560
334.9996434
335.00
Med.
119,858
247.0004137
247.00
Heavy +
36,879
75.99933469
76.00
SKILLED EMPLOYMENT (=SVP >4)
Sed.
3,397
7.000453915
7.00
Light
43,673
90.00024252
90.00
Med.
47,555
98.00017249
98.00
Heavy +
6,794
14.00090783
14.00





TOTALS:


1589.0000
1589

And there we have it.  Mathematical proof of equal distribution of the job numbers based on the number of DOT codes within each exertion-skill level intersection.  The same method works for every SOC-OES/Census code reported in the OEQ.  I know; I checked.  

No comments:

Post a Comment